Crypto stocks came back today with a VENGEANCE! Crypto, and most big tech stocks that have been hammered for the last couple of weeks skyrocketed with double digit gains today! We hope you were in it. Especially after our last couple of crypto articles on Ethereum and SOS Limited. And yes, we bought the dip, all the way down. It may have seemed a little frightening on the way down, but quite ecstatic on the way up. And as a result of our HODLing, today was one of our most profitable days in trading history. But, that is all in the past. Let’s see why Riot Blockchain Stock skyrocketed today, and make a prediction below.
What In The World Is Going On?
After several weeks of warning in some of our previous articles, we knew that market would tank. And it did…pretty hard. The pullback was immense, and it took out several months of gains in a few trading days on many stocks.
As they say, the market takes the “stairs up, elevator down.”
Shares of Apple, Tesla, Nvidia, Amazon and all of the crypto stocks got annihilated.
Many fell 20-75%.
This was due to 2 variables, in our opinion.
- The fact that the economy is reopening is actually bearish for stocks
- Interest rates spiked along with the USD and oil
Why would the economy opening up be bearish?
Because the market went parabolic on the RUMOR that the economy would open up. This was made possible by your local central bank pumping Trillions of currency into the markets to save them from the catastrophic bear market in March 2020.
That was a terrifying time to trade if you were 100% long.
Thankfully, our friends at the Federal Reserve and US Government printed all that money, allowing the markets to go vertical for about an entire year.
Now, in the simplest way to put it, the reverse occurred.
States are reopening from declining COVID numbers, signaling to the Smart Money that they should “sell the fact.”
This exact scenario played out like a charm, trapping all the bulls at the top. Interest rates spiked along with USD, putting major pressure on stonks. As a result, we got an incredibly rare dip.
Unless you were smart enough to hold and average down, you probably sold at the lows and missed this rally.
Don’t worry, it happens to everyone.
The trick is to buy the freaking dip!!!
Brief Technical Analysis
Let’s briefly analyze the technicals.
Riot Blockchain stock closed today at $52.16, up 33.81% on the day. As of this writing, the stock is up another 5% in after hours trading. This is still down significantly from the yearly high of $79.50. Currently, the market cap is $3.52 Billion USD.
Multiple other crypto related stocks are up significantly as well. Particularly, our favorite stock Tesla (yes, its now a crypto stock), Marathon Patent Group, EBON, BTBT, SOS and many others.
Great, but what does the chart say?
First, the stock closed above all the moving averages. Today, it closed above the 20dma. Which is very bullish.
Next, the MACD on the daily chart is ascending, which is also pretty bullish.
Not much to report here, this is a healthy upward trending chart.
What Happens Now? Riot Stock Prediction
Next, let’s see the probability of this move, with respect to direction. Is it a bull trap before the next leg down, or the rally that gets stonks back on track?
Let’s start with devil’s advocate. For the sake of argument, let’s say this was a massive bull trap to sucker everyone in before the final leg down.
The reasoning for this is simple. It is “Turnaround Tuesday” and stocks are just going nuts to counter yesterday’s down move.
This is a very reasonable argument, and the massive up move across most of the market does look similar to a rip your face off “bear market rally.”
It is very possible, and we are going to assign a 35% probability to this. Still low, but likely given the timing. There is also the risk that rates continue advancing and crash the markets even further.
Do not forget that just because you had a great day!
However, we are assigning the more likely scenario a 65% probability.
This second scenario is more likely to be the case than a bear market rally for a few reasons.
To summarize, the second scenario is that this crypto rally is the real deal, and will continue to advance.
We believe this is the case for 2 reasons:
- Stimulus Money (dolla dolla bill yall)
- Bitcoin is approaching all time highs
Beginning with number one, stimulus. The House and Senate are about to pass the next stimulus bill, which will make it rain money on stocks, cryptos and other assets.
Bitcoin has consolidating and started its next leg up (theoretically). This definitely drove a significant portion of the gains in the crypto related stocks.
If Bitcoin breaks out to new all time highs, then there is no reason the crypto stocks will not got back to all time highs, excluding an exogenous shock to the system.
Again, you can never rule out a liquidity shock, interest rate spikes, catastrophic global event, or company specific catastrophic event.
Conclusively, given the chart setup and bullishness today, we believe there is a strong probability that RIOT continues to move back up along with Bitcoin and the other crypto stocks.
If Bitcoin does make a new high and the market conditions do not change, we believe RIOT will most likely hit $100. MARA may break 50, etc.
Stay alert and do your own due diligence.
What do you think? Will RIOT continue to move higher or was this a bull trap?
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